2022 forecast: places where housing prices aren’t slowing down

National housing values grew 22.1% in 2021, and there are two capital cities and one region in particular that are not ready to slow down just yet. Can you guess where?

Happy New Year everyone! To kick off 2022, we’re looking at how the property market performed across 2021, and what we can expect over the next 12 months.

The most recent CoreLogic data reveals there’s a two-speed housing situation emerging across the country, with prices in Sydney (+0.3%), Melbourne (-0.1%) and Perth (+0.4%) slowing down in December.

On the other hand, Brisbane (+2.9%), Adelaide (+2.6%) and regional Queensland (+2.4%) are set to defy 2022 slowdowns, with CoreLogic saying there’s “no evidence of their growth slowing just yet”.

In fact, the monthly rate of growth for each of these regions reached a new cyclical high in December.

“In Brisbane and Adelaide, housing affordability is less challenging, advertised stock levels remain remarkably low and demographic trends continue to support housing demand,” explains CoreLogic’s Research Director Tim Lawless.

Hobart (+1%), Canberra (+0.9%), and Darwin (+0.6%) meanwhile performed smack bang in the middle of the pack in December.

So what’s causing the slowdown in other markets?

The annual housing value gains in the nation’s two biggest cities, Sydney (+25.3%) and Melbourne (+15.1%), were stellar in 2021.

But momentum has slowed sharply, with both cities recording their softest monthly reading since October 2020.

The slowing trend can partly be explained by a bigger deposit hurdle caused by higher housing prices alongside low-income growth, says Mr Lawless, as well as negative interstate migration.

“A surge in freshly advertised listings through December has (also) been a key factor in taking some heat out of the Melbourne and Sydney housing markets,” adds Mr Lawless.

Slower conditions across the Perth housing market, meanwhile, may be more attributable to the disruption to interstate migration caused by extended closed state borders.

“This has had a negative impact on housing demand,” adds Mr Lawless.

So what can we expect in 2022?

For starters, housing stock is very low across regional Australia in particular, with advertised stock levels finishing the year 35.9% below the five-year average.

This compares to combined capital cities seeing stock 14.2% below the five-year average.

“It is likely regional markets, especially those with lifestyle appeal, will continue to benefit from higher demand as remote working policies are more normalised, and demand for holiday homes remains strong amid continued international border restrictions,” says Mr Lawless.

“However, as interest rates begin to bottom out, and affordability constraints extend to regional markets, these housing markets may also move into a downswing phase over the course of 2022.”

And while sellers held the upper hand at the negotiation table in 2021, buyers are expected to regain some leverage in 2022.

That’s because the average time properties spend on the market is beginning to increase, while auction clearance rates are trending down.

Need help to finance your 2022 purchase?

The juxtaposition of higher housing values against low-income growth has resulted in higher barriers to entry.

“It is becoming increasingly harder to raise a deposit and fund transactional costs such as stamp duty,” says Mr Lawless.

This is why it’s never been more important to have a broker like us in your corner when it comes to securing your next property purchase, be that your dream home or adding to your investment portfolio.

In this current market, it’s also important to know your borrowing capacity before you start house hunting so you don’t stretch yourself beyond your limits.

So if you’d like to find out what you can borrow – get in touch today. We’d love to sit down with you and help you map out a plan for your 2022 property goals.

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