Another rate hold from the RBA - but when will borrowers get relief?

RBA Holds Rates on 4 November 2025 – What That Means for Borrowers

On Tuesday 4 November 2025, the RBA’s Monetary Policy Board decided to leave the official cash rate at 3.60 per cent. This decision was widely expected, but the commentary that came with it makes it clear that the RBA has shifted into a more cautious stance – and the implications for mortgage borrowers are important.

The Current Data in Brief

Here are the key numbers that shaped the RBA’s decision:

• Cash rate: 3.60 % — unchanged at the 4 November meeting.
  
  

• Inflation:
  
  

• Headline CPI: 3.2 % over the year to the September quarter.
  
  

• Trimmed-mean (RBA’s preferred underlying measure): 3.0 % annualised.
  
  

• The RBA’s updated forecasts now expect trimmed mean inflation to rise to around 3.2 % before declining toward ~2.6 % by end-2027.
  
  

• Unemployment / Labour market:
  
  

• The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.5 % in September 2025, up from 4.3 % in August.
  
  

• Trend unemployment (which smooths monthly volatility) remained at around 4.3 %.
  
  

• Employment growth is relatively weak: the September monthly increase was +14,900 jobs, below expectations and highlighting a slower pace of jobs creation.
  
  

• Economic activity / housing:
  
  

• The RBA noted that private demand is recovering, housing markets are strengthening, and dwelling construction costs are rising again.
  
  

• The Bank also commented that the “economy is growing at close to its speed limit,” meaning there is less spare capacity to dampen inflation.

What the RBA is saying...

In the official statement, the RBA emphasised a few points that are worth calling out for borrowers and brokers:

• The Board judged that some of the recent uptick in inflation (in the September quarter) is attributable to temporary factors (e.g., higher electricity bills, fuel, council rates) but also flagged stronger price increases in more persistent categories such as new dwellings and services.
  
  

• The labour market is still relatively tight, even though unemployment has ticked up – the RBA views that there is still some excess demand in the economy.
  
  

• Importantly: the Board stated it did not consider cutting the cash rate at the November meeting.
  
  

The messaging strongly suggests the stance is now “hold for longer”, rather than expecting imminent cuts. The RBA is focusing on whether inflation is sustainably heading back to around the midpoint of its 2-3 % target band.

Why this matters for Mortgage Owners

1. Rate relief is not immediate
   With the RBA holding at 3.60 % and signalling that cuts are not “just around the corner”, borrowers should not expect mortgage rates to drop significantly in the short term. Lenders will likely keep variable and some fixed rates cautious until inflation shows clear signs of easing.
   
   

2. Refinancing decisions
   Clients sitting on higher variable rates might still consider refinancing / locking in a fixed rate, but they need to be aware that waiting in the hope of a rate cut may not yield much in the near term. You can discuss the trade-off: fix now versus variable and await data-driven change.
   
   

3. Affordability pressure remains
   Housing costs, rents and construction costs are rising again, these feed inflation, which in turn restricts the RBA’s flexibility. Borrowers remain under pressure from cost-of-living and servicing burdens. From your side, help clients stress-test scenarios (e.g., higher rates, slower growth) and take a conservative approach.
   
   

Watch the indicators
The next few quarterly inflation readings, labour market stats and housing cost data will be critical. If inflation remains sticky and the RBA remains on hold, then rate cuts may be pushed further out.

What the Big 4 banks are predicting...

Here’s a summary of what Australia’s major banks are currently saying about when the next rate cut may occur: 

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA): Has moved to a view that there will be no further cash-rate cuts in this cycle.
  
  

• ANZ Banking Group: Forecasts the first cut is likely in February 2026, taking the cash rate to ~3.35 %.
  
  

• National Australia Bank (NAB): Predicts the cut may come in May 2026, also to around 3.35 %.
  
  

Westpac Banking Corporation: The more optimistic of the four, it sees cuts perhaps in May 2026 and August 2026, potentially taking the rate down to ~3.10 % by the end of the 2026 cycle.

So the broad takeaway: no cuts expected in 2025, and the earliest plausible relief window is early-to-mid 2026 — and even then it depends heavily on inflation, labour market, housing costs and global developments.